Hot Take Corner: Matt Chapman and the Giants
Analyzing Matt Chapman's signing, and J.D. Davis' release.
A few days ago, the San Francisco Giants signed Matt Chapman to a 3 year, $54M contract. He will earn $20M in the first year (2024), then $18M in 2025, then $16M in 2026. The contract also includes player options for the 2025 and 2026 seasons. Related to this signing, the Giants released third baseman J.D. Davis, who played in 144 games last season. J.D. Davis was set to earn $6.9M, an amount he won in arbitration, but will only be paid $1.1M in termination pay. So essentially, the Giants have swapped J.D. Davis for Matt Chapman. These players have so many similarities (they are even just one day apart in age) that it raises the question: is it really worth it?
There is no denying the incredible defensive talent of Matt Chapman. He is a four-time gold glove winner and a two-time platinum glove winner; the credentials are certainly there. On the other hand, J.D. Davis is consistently a liability in the field, having never posted a positive dWAR in his seven years in the bigs (not to mention that this problem can be overcome by having him play DH). However, when you compare them offensively, they actually profile quite similarly: close in career BA, OBP, OPS, and OPS+, with J.D. Davis having a slight lead in BA and OBP, with Chapman slightly ahead in the other three. If we compare just their 2023 seasons, we see a similar story. Furthermore, Baseball-Reference actually projects J.D. Davis to have an arguably better offensive season than Chapman, understanding of course that projections are often unreliable in a sport like baseball.
The other issue here is that in order for Matt Chapman to remain a Giant for all three years, he will necessarily have to play at a mediocre level. Allow me to explain. Let’s say Chapman has an absolutely stellar year: best case scenario he gets an all-star nod, and is a contender for the MVP, and wins the golden glove. He will most likely opt out of the remainder of the contract and aim for a bigger payday. For a comparison, the average annual value (AAV) of Nolan Arenado’s contract, an amazing third baseman with both the glove and the bat, is over $30M. The AAV of Chapman’s contract is only $18M, $17M if we consider only 2025 and 2026. If Chapman has a great year, there will definitely be teams looking to poach him from the Giants.
The Giants already had a perfectly serviceable third baseman in J.D. Davis, but have decided to pay $13M more (in 2024) for a player who will probably give them similar offensive output. If Chapman outperforms expectations, he’ll likely end up on a different team for the 2025 and 2026 seasons. There are people who will argue that good defense wins games. In response to these people, I evoke the age-old adage: “the best defense is a good offense.” Not to mention, third base is not the most important position to have a gold-gloving fielder. That would have to be shortstop or center field. In my humble opinion, a gold glove is not worth an extra $13M. To me, this is a puzzling decision by the San Francisco Giants. I don’t think that Matt Chapman will allow the Giants to outscore opponents more than if they had kept J.D. Davis, so I feel that I have no choice but to label this signing as a miss.
Yesterday (3/15/24), J.D. Davis signed a one-year, $2.5M contract with the Oakland, soon to be Las Vegas, A’s with $1M in performance incentives, a far cry from the $6.9M he was supposed to make this season. Hopefully, J.D. Davis will put together another solid season and earn himself the payday he deserves.